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Article summary:
1. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) publishes an annual Forecast Evaluation Report that compares their forecasts against subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts.
2. The pandemic resulted in the largest forecast errors on record, but also provided important lessons about economic and fiscal forecasting.
3. The OBR's latest Forecast Evaluation Report focuses on how their March 2022 and November 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2021-22 fared against the outturns.
Article analysis:
The article discusses the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) annual Forecast Evaluation Report, which compares their forecasts against subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. The report focuses on how the OBR's March 2022 and November 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2021-22 fared against the outturns.
The article acknowledges that the pandemic delivered one of the largest peacetime shocks to the UK economy in history last year, resulting in the largest forecast errors on record. However, it also provides several important lessons about economic and fiscal forecasting as such a large and novel shock.
One potential bias in this article is that it only presents information from the OBR's perspective without exploring any counterarguments or alternative viewpoints. It also does not provide any evidence to support its claims about lessons learned from the pandemic's impact on economic and fiscal forecasting.
Additionally, there is promotional content included in the article, such as links to other reports published by the OBR. While these links may be relevant to readers interested in learning more about the OBR's work, they could also be seen as biased towards promoting their organization.
Overall, while this article provides some useful information about the OBR's Forecast Evaluation Report, it could benefit from presenting a more balanced perspective and providing evidence to support its claims.
Topics for further research:
Critiques of the OBR's forecasting methodology
Alternative viewpoints on the impact of the pandemic on economic forecasting
Lessons learned from other countries' responses to the pandemic's economic impact
The role of fiscal policy in mitigating the pandemic's economic effects
The impact of Brexit on the UK economy and its forecasting
The accuracy of long-term economic forecasts and their usefulness in policymaking